Conventional wisdom says that only three candidates from each party will emerge from Iowa with a legitimate chance for the presidency. Those three tickets on the Democratic side of course will be punched for Clinton, Obama and Edwards. The Iowa Republicans will only advance two candidates, Huckabee and Romney. While McCain will have a solid third place finish, his efforts will ultimately fall short as his stock drops in future contests.
The major story coming from Iowa will be "Huckabee Populism." The governor is connecting with the Republican voters that enabled "W" to win two terms in the WH. Romney, who should be the clear front runner in this race, has morphed into John Kerry - and we all know how that candidacy ended.
In the past few weeks and months, Huckabee has hit his stride. The contrast between the two campaigns could not be more apparent than in the way they talk about their personal religious beliefs. Huckabee, an ordained Baptist minister, is very much at ease with his religion and in the evangelical wing of the GOP. His recent Merry Christmas ad is a demonstration of that and was a stroke of genius in a campaign that emphasizes candidates being authentic.
In contrast, Romney, with his long-awaited speech "Faith in America," missed an opportunity to put the real issue of his candidacy behind him. The larger issue for Romney is what do you believe? Not, religiously-speaking, but what are your core convictions. His "faith of my fathers," line did not cut it. The outline for his speech should have been: JFK answered the question over 40 years ago and I stand with him. Yes, I am a Mormon. I'm very proud of the virtues and values my faith has taught me. This is what I believe, this is how it has shaped my view of the world. I am not running as a Mormon, but as Mitt Romney. The real outline was not far from this, but he failed to lay out the bedrock principles guiding his beliefs. If had gone deeper into what he believes, perhaps that would have provided insight into why he is not a flip-flopper -- which is the real issue he needed to answer coming out of Iowa.
The secondary story out of Iowa
The historic nature of the Clinton/Obama candidacies will automatically garner significant media coverage, but neither candidate will gain much advantage. However, the under-reported story out of Iowa will be the impact of Oprah.
In some cases, polls will over-estimate the popularity of African-American candidates. It goes by many names, some call it the 15 percent factor or the Wilder effect (after Gov. Doug Wilder in VA). In other words a significant number of voters will say they are likely to vote for an African-American candidate but when it comes time to vote, they choose the white candidate. So, assuming that Obama's tight lead in the opinion polls is inflated by some voters who want to be politically correct, he'll need to draw in people who are not likely voters. No one is saying that people will vote of Obama because of Oprah's support. However, the "O-Factor" may have attracted enough voters into the process to correct the margin of error in the polls. See Oprah's rally in Des Moines
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This section highlights key legislation and links for you to contact your elected officials.
Health care reform is front and center on the nation's agenda. The group Sojourners has an interesting "Christian Health Care Creed" that can be sent to Congress. It in part says:
"I believe that Christians should seek to bring health and well-being (shalom) to the society into which God has placed us, for a healthy society benefits all members (Jeremiah 29:7).
I believe in a time when all will live long and healthy lives, from infancy to old age (Isaiah 65:20), and "mourning and crying and pain will be no more" (Revelation 21:4). My heart breaks for my brothers and sisters who watch their loved ones suffer, or who suffer themselves, because they cannot afford a trip to the doctor. I stand with them in their suffering."
Health care reform is front and center on the nation's agenda. The group Sojourners has an interesting "Christian Health Care Creed" that can be sent to Congress. It in part says:
"I believe that Christians should seek to bring health and well-being (shalom) to the society into which God has placed us, for a healthy society benefits all members (Jeremiah 29:7).
I believe in a time when all will live long and healthy lives, from infancy to old age (Isaiah 65:20), and "mourning and crying and pain will be no more" (Revelation 21:4). My heart breaks for my brothers and sisters who watch their loved ones suffer, or who suffer themselves, because they cannot afford a trip to the doctor. I stand with them in their suffering."
A Little This..A Little That...
06/20/08
Gallup Poll: Currently, 79% of Americans hold negative views about the economy, while 13% hold mixed views, and only 5% hold positive views. In comparison, 61% of Americans held a negative view at the begining of the year, 21% held a mixed view and 16% were positive.
04/19/08
Gallup Daily: Hillary Clinton now receives 46% of the support of Democrats nationally, compared to 45% for Barack Obama, marking the first time Obama has not led in Gallup's daily tracking since March 18-20.
04/06/08...The Milwaukee Brewers are starting the 2008 Season where they belong atop the NL Central. Ben Sheets was dazzling Sunday as he helped the club sweep the Giants with a 7-0 victory.
02/06/08...A bit of old news, but the casual dining chains continue to struggle as folks like me have to look twice at our spending habits due to the high price of gas, groceries and a slumping housing market. As you know, IHOP bought Applebee's last November -- a deal that I for one questioned. Applebee's sales continue to decline and that does not bode well for the future of the chain. The management strategy for IHOP is the franchise model so the company-owned Applebee's may be on their way out faster than you can say "baby back." With the debt of the purchase, you can imagine they're under pressure to turn things around or else. Look for IHOP to make a deal with a private equity firm to take the stores off their books. The National Restaurant Association recently issued the following release: Restaurant Performance Index Declined for the Fourth Consecutive Month in December
01/26/08...The Civil Rights Project at UCLA published astyd discussing the resegregation of the public schools. The report finds that segregation of African Americans is back to what it was in the late 1960s. The only kinds of communities with high levels of school integration are the nation’s rural areas and towns, once the center of the most intense resistance. By contrast, extreme segregation is concentrated in the largest metropolitan areas. Read the report: The Last Have Become First; Rural and Small Town America Lead the Way on Desegregation
01/04/08...Federal efforts to eliminate racial and ethnic disparities in health care are underfunded and indicate a lack of seriousness about accomplishing the goal, according to former U.S. Surgeon General David Satcher. You can view Dr. Satcher discussing health disparities and current federal legislative efforts and the factors that may influence the outcome of these efforts.
12/31/07...The U.S. Census Bureau says that on this New Year's Eve, morethan 303 million Americans of all ages are ready to greet the year 2008. Fifty years ago, the U.S. population was just over 171 million. A centuryago, it was 87 million. To show how fast the nation is growing, by thistime tomorrow, there will be some 7,800 new babies on hand to welcome the new year.
12/28/07...Sales of new one-family houses in November 2007 were 9.0 percent below the revised October rate and is 34.4 percent below the November 2006 rate. The median sales price of new houses sold in November 2007 was $239,100; the average sales price was $293,300, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
The outlook for the restaurant industry continued to weaken in November. Forty-four percent of operators reported a same-store sales decline in November, up from 36 percent who reported similarly in October, according to the National Restaurant Association's comprehensive index of restaurant activity. The index fell to its lowest level in more than four years. FYI...News Report on the Casual Dining Sector
Gallup Poll: Currently, 79% of Americans hold negative views about the economy, while 13% hold mixed views, and only 5% hold positive views. In comparison, 61% of Americans held a negative view at the begining of the year, 21% held a mixed view and 16% were positive.
04/19/08
Gallup Daily: Hillary Clinton now receives 46% of the support of Democrats nationally, compared to 45% for Barack Obama, marking the first time Obama has not led in Gallup's daily tracking since March 18-20.
04/06/08...The Milwaukee Brewers are starting the 2008 Season where they belong atop the NL Central. Ben Sheets was dazzling Sunday as he helped the club sweep the Giants with a 7-0 victory.
02/06/08...A bit of old news, but the casual dining chains continue to struggle as folks like me have to look twice at our spending habits due to the high price of gas, groceries and a slumping housing market. As you know, IHOP bought Applebee's last November -- a deal that I for one questioned. Applebee's sales continue to decline and that does not bode well for the future of the chain. The management strategy for IHOP is the franchise model so the company-owned Applebee's may be on their way out faster than you can say "baby back." With the debt of the purchase, you can imagine they're under pressure to turn things around or else. Look for IHOP to make a deal with a private equity firm to take the stores off their books. The National Restaurant Association recently issued the following release: Restaurant Performance Index Declined for the Fourth Consecutive Month in December
01/26/08...The Civil Rights Project at UCLA published astyd discussing the resegregation of the public schools. The report finds that segregation of African Americans is back to what it was in the late 1960s. The only kinds of communities with high levels of school integration are the nation’s rural areas and towns, once the center of the most intense resistance. By contrast, extreme segregation is concentrated in the largest metropolitan areas. Read the report: The Last Have Become First; Rural and Small Town America Lead the Way on Desegregation
01/04/08...Federal efforts to eliminate racial and ethnic disparities in health care are underfunded and indicate a lack of seriousness about accomplishing the goal, according to former U.S. Surgeon General David Satcher. You can view Dr. Satcher discussing health disparities and current federal legislative efforts and the factors that may influence the outcome of these efforts.
12/31/07...The U.S. Census Bureau says that on this New Year's Eve, morethan 303 million Americans of all ages are ready to greet the year 2008. Fifty years ago, the U.S. population was just over 171 million. A centuryago, it was 87 million. To show how fast the nation is growing, by thistime tomorrow, there will be some 7,800 new babies on hand to welcome the new year.
12/28/07...Sales of new one-family houses in November 2007 were 9.0 percent below the revised October rate and is 34.4 percent below the November 2006 rate. The median sales price of new houses sold in November 2007 was $239,100; the average sales price was $293,300, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
The outlook for the restaurant industry continued to weaken in November. Forty-four percent of operators reported a same-store sales decline in November, up from 36 percent who reported similarly in October, according to the National Restaurant Association's comprehensive index of restaurant activity. The index fell to its lowest level in more than four years. FYI...News Report on the Casual Dining Sector
2 comments:
Didn't Oprah support Al Gore? Look what happen -- he won the nobel Peace Prize not the Presidency. I do not think she has enough poltiical swing.
I agree that she does not have the juice to get him elected. But let's look at Iowa. In a tight three-way race, where there are few voters (only 124,000 turned out in 2004) it only takes a small increase in turnout to make a difference. If there is an incremental increase in Obama as a second choice among non-viable candidates, then he can score a victory. Oprah's support is significant in energizing his supporters (a key to turnout), getting his message considered by some who heretofore where not likely caucus goers and as I say in the original post, she may serve to make some people more comfortable voting for him. Remember, Kennedy's margin of victory over Nixon was less than one vote per precinct. Did his call to the King family during the campaign make the difference? In a tight race, it only takes a small number of voters to make a difference. In Iowa and possibly in SC-- Oprah will be that difference. Few will admit that when it is all said and done -- but when you look inside the numbers you'll see that I am right.
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